SLIDE :
John Kindelberber - Children in Air bag Crashes - SAE Government-Industry Meeting 2003


SLIDE 1:
CHILDREN IN AIR BAG CRASHES

- John Kindelberger
National center for Statistics and Analysis
National Highway Treaffic Safety Administration
U.S. department of Transportation


SLIDE 2:
TOPICS
- collecting data on air bag fatalities
- crisis and response
- where are the children?
- conclusions


SLIDE 3:
COLLECTING DATA ON AIR BAG CRASHES
- the Special Crash Investigation (SCI) program is a component of the National Center for Statistics and analysis (NCSA) in the National HighwayTrafic Safety Administration (NHTSA).

- SCI researchers perform special, intensive investigations of crashes selected for high interest.

- airbag-related fatal and serious injury cases are of particularly high interest.


SPECIAL CRASH INVESTIGATIONS (SCI)
"cases of interest" located through:
 - fatality analysis reporting system (FARS)
 - national automotive sampling system (NASS)
 - Other Dot/NHTSA research components, regional offices, and hotlines
- police and fire/erscue personnel
- auto manufacturers

SCI files are believed to contain a near-census of airbag-related fatalities in crashes of minor to moderate severity (delta-V <25mph).


SLIDE 3:
CRISIS AND RESPONSE

Air bags were introduced to save lives - and NHTSA estimates 10,271 lives saved by air bags as of January 1, 2002.

	BUT

in some crashes of minor to moderate severity, a deploying air bag has been an injury SOURCE.

Of special concern have been fatal passenger air bag (PAB) injuries to infants and children under 12:
 * 1993: 1 - the first child PAB fatality
 * 1994: 5
 * 1995: 8
 * 1996: 25
 * 1997: 31


SLIDEs 4-5:
CRISIS AND RESPONSE
Fleet size was also growing....
number of passenger air-bag-equippped cars/light trucks in fleet grew from:

	600,00 in 1992 
	to
	40,000,000 in 1997

[source: RL Polk registration data]

responses to the crisis:

Public education
- 1996: safety campaigns launched by NHTSA and its partners - manufacturers, insurance companies, and other organizations

** a primary message: children 12 and under are safer in the back.

Rulemaking:
- March 1997: NHTSA rule allows manufacturers to reduce force at which airbags deploy 

"redesigned air bags"> more accurately called "sled-certified air bags" (optional sled test vs. previously required barrier test)

- vehicles certified to new standard enter fleet throughout 1998 model year.

- May 2000: final rule, advanced air bags


WERE THE MEASURES EFFECTIVE?

to answer, compare counts across years
 - align fatality counts into Sept-Aug production years
 - divide by "million registered vehicle years (MRVY): estimated number of (driver/pass) airbag-equipped vehicles on road during production year (in millions) - adjusted for attrition and gradual release


SLIDE 6:
CRISIS AND RESPONSE
[table]
children fatally injured by a passenger air bag normalized by million registered vehicle years

[bar chart]
children fatally injured by a passenger air bag normalized by million registered vehicle eyars
12-month period (Sept-Aug)


SLIDE 7:
SEPARATING THE EFFECTS

is the observed reduction an effect of

	public education
or
	sled-certified air bags

to assess, control for air bag type - compare since 1997


SEPARATING THE EFFECTS
[table]
children fatally injured by a PAB: barrier certified vs. sled-certified - normalized by MRVY

SLIDE 8:
SEPARATING THE EFFECTS
[bar chart]
children fatally injured by a PAB: barrier certified vs. sled-certified - normalized by MRVY 12-month period (sept-aug)

- public education effect ACROSS years
- redesign effect WITHIN years

graph suggests *both* effects are positive


SLIDE 9:
WHERE ARE THE CHILDREN?
- reduction in air bag fatalities suggest "back seat" message has been heeded - but can't tell us to what extent

- can other data sources help?

The NHTSA State Data System holds data on all police-reported crashes from 18 participating states

- can be useful for tracking seating patterns

to look at changes over time, can control for
	* child age group
	* number of adults/children in vehicle



SLIDE 10:
CHILDREN AGE 0-3
Percent vehicles with a child in front seat among vehicles with 1 adult and 1 or 2 children in 1996-2000 police-reported crashes
(bar charts - illegible)

CHILDREN AGE 4-7
Percent vehicles with a child in front seat among vehicles with 1 adult and 1 or 2 children in 1996-2000 police-reported crashes
(bar charts - illegible)


SLIDE 11:

CHILDREN AGE 8-12
Percent vehicles with a child in front seat among vehicles with 1 adult and 1 or 2 children in 1996-2000 police-reported crashes
(bar charts - illegible)


CONCERNS FOR THE FUTURE:

NHTSA on watch for possible rise in rates:
- as used first-generation air bag vehicles are bought by drivers who previously owned cars wtihout airbags, and thus might not have given attention to air bag safety messages



SLIDE 12:
CONCLUSIONS
- child air bag-related fatalities as a rate per air bag equipped vehicl have dropped every year since 1996

- Sled-certified air bags have had a lower rate of child fatal injury than barrier-certified air bags in each year since they were introduced

- child air bag fatality reduction for both barrier- and sled-certified air bags in the years since 1996 suggests postive effect of public education efforts

- crash data from selected states show drivers are moving infants and toddlers to the back, but room for improvement remains

- state crash data show older children are still commonly in front seats


NHTSA SCI WEB SITE
http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/departments/nrd-30/ncsa/SCI.html

- summary tables and quarterly charts
- full case studies for all published cases
- query interface