U.S. Department
of Transportation

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Administration

 

 


DOT HS 809 512
September 2003

PDF Version | MS Word Version

Automotive Fuel
Economy Program

Annual Update
Calendar Year 2002

 

 

This publication is distributed by the U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, in the interest of information exchange.  The opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the U.S. Department of Transportation or National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.  The United States Government assumes no liability for its content or use thereof.  If trade or manufacturer's names or products are mentioned, it is because they are considered essential to the object of the publication and should not be construed as an endorsement.  The United States Government does not endorse products or manufacturers.

 

 

AUTOMOTIVE FUEL ECONOMY PROGRAM


ANNUAL UPDATE

CALENDAR YEAR 2002

 

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

 

SECTION I: INTRODUCTION

SECTION II:  VEHICLE FUEL ECONOMY PERFORMANCE AND CHARACTERISTICS

A.     Fuel Economy Performance by Manufacturer

B.     Characteristics of the MY 2002 Passenger Car Fleet

C.     Characteristics of the MY 2002 Light Truck Fleet

D.     Passenger Car and Light Truck Fleet Economy Averages

E.      Domestic and Import Fleet Fuel Economy Averages

SECTION III:  2002 ACTIVITIES

A.     Light Truck CAFE Standards

B.     Low Volume Petitions

C.     Enforcement

D.     Carryback Plan

E.     Manufacturing Incentives for Alternative Fuel Vehicles

 


 

SECTION I:  INTRODUCTION

The Automotive Fuel Economy Program Annual Update summarizes the fuel economy performance of the vehicle fleet and the activities of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) during 2002.  Included in this report is a section summarizing rulemaking activities during 2002.

The Secretary of Transportation is required to administer a program for regulating the fuel economy of new passenger cars and light trucks in the United States market.  The authority to administer the program was delegated by the Secretary to the Administrator of NHTSA, 49 C.F.R. 1.50(f).

NHTSA's responsibilities in the fuel economy area include: 

    1. establishing and amending average fuel economy standards for manufacturers of passenger cars and light trucks, as necessary;

    2. promulgating regulations concerning procedures, definitions, and reports necessary to support the fuel economy standards;

    3. considering petitions for exemption from established fuel economy standards by low volume manufacturers (those producing fewer than 10,000 passenger cars annually worldwide) and establishing alternative standards for them;

    4. enforcing fuel economy standards and regulations; and

    5. responding to petitions concerning domestic production by foreign manufacturers, and other matters.

Passenger car fuel economy standards were established by Congress for Model Year (MY) 1985 and thereafter at a level of 27.5 miles per gallon (mpg).  NHTSA is authorized to amend the standard above or below that level.  The agency has established light truck standards each year, but Congress mandated through the DOT Appropriations Acts for fiscal years 1996 through 2001, no increase from the MY 1996 value of 20.7 mpg for MYs 1998 through 2003.  The Congressional freeze on CAFE standards was repealed in mid-December 2001.  Given the short lead-time (CAFE standards must be set 18 months prior to the affected model year), in April 2002, the agency set the MY 2004 light truck standard at 20.7 mpg.  All fuel economy standards through MY 2004 are listed in Table I-1.

Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) is the sales weighted average fuel economy, expressed in mpg, of a manufacturer's fleet of  passenger cars or light trucks with a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 8,500 lbs. or less, manufactured for sale in the United States, for any given model year.  Fuel economy is defined as the average mileage traveled by an automobile per gallon of gasoline (or equivalent amount of other fuel) consumed as measured in accordance with the testing and evaluation protocol set forth by Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

Manufacturers perform their own fuel economy tests of new car models and submit the results to EPA.  EPA is responsible for conducting its own tests or verifying the manufacturers' dynamometer tests.  EPA also is responsible for compiling the production data from manufacturers' reports and furnishing CAFE results to NHTSA.

Fuel economy test data from the manufacturers and EPA serves as the starting point for both CAFE values and real world fuel economy projections.  For CAFE, the test data is adjusted upward to account for any credits for dual fuel and dedicated alternative fuel vehicles, and for passenger cars only, is adjusted upward for credits available to manufacturers to account for test procedure changes since the CAFE program was established.  This report presents CAFE values since they are used to determine manufacturer compliance with fuel economy standards.

The Federal government provides real world fuel economy projections to consumers in several ways:  on new vehicle labels, in the Fuel Economy Guide, and on EPA and Department of Energy (DOE) websites.  The Fuel Economy Guide is published and distributed by DOE based on EPA data.  The Fuel Economy Guide lists the city and highway fuel economy estimates that are included on the Fuel Economy label on new vehicles.   A downloadable version of the Fuel Economy Guide can be found at http://www.fueleconomy.gov.These estimates are derived from the same dynamometer test values used for CAFE calculation, mentioned above.  EPA adjusts these laboratory test results to account for the difference between controlled laboratory conditions and actual driving on the road.  The laboratory fuel economy results are adjusted downward to derive the estimates in the Fuel Economy Guide and on new passenger cars and light trucks labels.  The city test value is lowered 10 percent and the highway test value is reduced 22 percent.  Thus, the city and highway fuel economy estimates used to calculate CAFE differ from the numbers in the Fuel Economy Guide and on the new car and light truck window labels.


Table I-1
Fuel Economy Standards for Passenger Cars and Light Trucks
Model Years 1978 through 2004 (in MPG)

Model Year

Passenger Cars

Light Trucks (1)

 

Two-wheel
Drive

Four-wheel
Drive

Combined (2), (3)

1978

     18.0 (4)

...

...

...    

1979

     19.0 (4)

17.2

15.8

...    

1980

       20.0 (4)

16.0

14.0

...(5)

1981

  22.0

   16.7(6)

15.0

... (5)

1982

  24.0

18.0

16.0

17.5

1983

  26.0

19.5

17.5

19.0

1984

  27.0

20.3

18.5

20.0

1985

     27.5(4)

   19.7(7)

     18.9(7)

  19.5(7)

1986

     26.0(8)

20.5

19.5

20.0

1987

     26.0(9)

21.0

19.5

20.5

1988

     26.0(9)

21.0

19.5

20.5

1989

       26.5(10)

21.5

19.0

20.5

1990

    27.5(4)

20.5

19.0

20.0

1991

    27.5(4)

20.7

19.1

20.2

1992

    27.5(4)

...

...

 20.2

1993

    27.5(4)

...

...

20.4

1994

    27.5(4)

...

...

20.5

1995

    27.5(4)

...

...

20.6

1996

    27.5(4)

...

...

20.7

1997

    27.5(4)

...

...

20.7

1998

    27.5(4)

...

...

20.7

1999

    27.5(4)

...

...

20.7

2000

    27.5(4)

...

...

20.7

2001

    27.5(4)

...

...

20.7

2002

    27.5(4)

...

...

20.7

2003

    27.5(4)

...

...

20.7

2004

    27.5(4)

...

...

20.7

    1. Standards for MY 1979 light trucks were established for vehicles with a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 6,000 pounds or less.  Standards for MY 1980 and beyond are for light trucks with a GVWR of 8,500 pounds or less.
    2. For MY 1979, light truck manufacturers could comply separately with standards for four-wheel drive, general utility vehicles and all other light trucks, or combine their trucks into a single fleet and comply with the standard of 17.2 mpg.
    3. For MYs 1982-1991, manufacturers could comply with the two-wheel and four-wheel drive standards or could combine all light trucks and comply with the combined standard.
    4. Established by Congress in Title V of the Motor Vehicle Information and Cost Savings Act.
    5. A manufacturer whose light truck fleet was powered exclusively by basic engines which were not also used in passenger cars could meet standards of 14 mpg and 14.5 mpg in MYs 1980 and 1981, respectively.
    6. Revised in June 1979 from 18.0 mpg.
    7. Revised in October 1984 from 21.6 mpg for two-wheel drive, 19.0 mpg for four-wheel drive, and 21.0 mpg for combined.
    8. Revised in October 1985 from 27.5 mpg.
    9. Revised in October 1986 from 27.5 mpg.
    10. Revised in September 1988 from 27.5 mpg.

 


 

SECTION II: VEHICLE FUEL ECONOMY PERFORMANCE AND CHARACTERISTICS

 

A.        Fuel Economy Performance by Manufacturer

The fuel economy achievements for domestic and foreign-based manufacturers in MY 2002 were updated to include final EPA calculations, where available, since the publication of the Automotive Fuel Economy Program, Annual Update Calendar Year 2001.  These fuel economy achievements and current projected data for MY 2002 are listed in Tables II-1 and II-2.

Overall fleet fuel economy for passenger cars was 28.9 mpg in MY 2002, an increase of 0.1 mpg above the MY 2001 level.  For MY 2002, CAFE values increased above MY 2001 levels for 11 of 22 passenger car manufacturers' fleets.  (See Table II-1.)  These 11 companies accounted for more than 57 percent of the total MY 2002 production.  Manufacturers continued to introduce new technologies and more fuel-efficient models, and some larger, heavier, or more powerful less fuel-efficient models.  For MY 2002, the overall domestic manufacturers' sales weighted passenger car fleet average CAFE was 29.0 mpg.  For MY 2002, Ford, General Motors, and Nissan domestic sales weighted passenger car CAFE values rose 0.1 mpg, 0.3 mpg, and 1.0 mpg, respectively, from their MY 2001 levels, while both DaimlerChrylser and Honda domestic sales weighted passenger car CAFE values fell 0.3 mpg from their MY 2001 levels.  Overall, the domestic manufacturers' combined sales weighted MY 2002 CAFE increased 0.3 mpg above the MY 2001 level.


Table II-1
PASSENGER CAR FUEL ECONOMY PERFORMANCE BY MANUFACTURER

MANUFACTURER

MODEL YEAR CAFE (MPG)

DOMESTIC

2001

2002

DaimlerChrysler........................................................
27.9
27.6
Ford*......................................................................
27.7
27.8
General Motors.........................................................
28.3
28.6
Honda.....................................................................
32.7
32.4
Nissan.....................................................................
27.9
28.9
Quantum.................................................................
30.2

Toyota**.................................................................

33.6

Sales Weighted Average (Domestic)

28.7

29.0

IMPORT
 

BMW.......................................................................

25.0
25.8

Daewoo...................................................................

28.6
28.3

DaimlerChrysler........................................................

26.5
26.5

Fiat..........................................................................

13.7
15.1

Ford........................................................................

27.9
28.1

General Motors.........................................................

26.5
27.7

Honda.....................................................................

29.3
29.8

Hyundai...................................................................

31.3
31.2

Kia..........................................................................

30.5
29.7

Lotus.......................................................................

20.8
20.8

Nissan.....................................................................

28.7
29.5

Porsche....................................................................

23.7
23.9

Subaru....................................................................

27.8
27.6

Suzuki.....................................................................

35.1
33.6

Toyota....................................................................

30.6
29.3

Volkswagen............................................................. 

28.5
29.2

SALES WEIGHTED AVERAGE (IMPORT)

29.0

28.7

SALES WEIGHTED TOTAL FLEET AVERAGE

28.8

28.9

FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS

27.5

27.5

* Ford domestic passenger car fleet CAFE level was 27.1 mpg, for MY 2002.  This manufacturer earned CAFE incentives for the sale of alternative fuel vehicles.  The incentives raised its CAFE value to the figure shown above.

**The 2001 Fuel Economy Report showed that Toyota had a domestic car fleet CAFE value of  34.2 mpg in 2001.  This was based on mid-model year data.  Originally, Toyota estimated that the Corolla, Solara, and Avalon would be domestic vehicles in the 2001 model year.  During production, the ratio of foreign to domestic parts changed in these vehicles, and they were reclassified as import vehicles.

Table II-2

LIGHT TRUCK FUEL ECONOMY PERFORMANCE BY MANUFACTURER
MODEL YEARS 2001 AND 2002

MANUFACTURER

MODEL YEAR CAFE (MPG)

 

Combined

2001

2002

BMW .....................................................................................

19.2
19.7

DaimlerChrysler*.....................................................................

20.8
21.2

Ford*.....................................................................................

20.4
20.7

General Motors*......................................................................

20.7
21.1

Honda....................................................................................

25.0
25.4

Hyundai..................................................................................

25.0
24.8

Isuzu......................................................................................

21.1
21.0

Kia..........................................................................................

23.0

21.4

Nissan.....................................................................................

20.7
20.7

Suzuki ....................................................................................

22.1
21.8

Toyota.....................................................................................

22.1
22.1

Volkswagen..............................................................................

20.4
20.6

SALES WEIGHTED TOTAL FLEET AVERAGE

20.9

21.3

FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS

20.7

20.7

*The MY 2002 light truck fuel economy values for DaimlerChrysler, Ford, and General Motors light truck fleets were 20.1 mpg, 20.3 mpg, and 20.2 mpg, respectively.  These manufacturers earned CAFE incentives for the sale of alternative fuel vehicles.  These incentives raised their CAFE values to the figures shown above.

In MY 2002, the sales weighted fleet average CAFE for import passenger cars decreased by 0.3 mpg below the MY 2001 CAFE level to 28.7 mpg.  Eight of the 16 import car manufacturers increased their CAFE values between MYs 2001 and 2002.  Figure II-1 illustrates the changes in total new passenger car fleet CAFE from MY 1978 to MY 2002.

The total sales weighted light truck fleet CAFE increased 0.4 mpg above the MY 2001 CAFE level of 20.9 mpg (see Table II-2).  For MY 2002, CAFE values increased above MY 2001 values for six of 12 light truck manufacturers' fleets.  These six companies accounted for 83.3 percent of the total MY 2002 light truck production.  Figure II-2 illustrates the trends in total light truck fleet CAFE from MY 1979 to MY 2002.

Five passenger car (BMW, DaimlerChrysler import, Fiat, Lotus, and Porsche) and two light truck manufacturers (BMW and Volkswagen) are projected to fail to achieve the levels of the MY 2002 CAFE standards.  Some MY 2002 CAFE values may change when final figures are provided to NHTSA by EPA in 2003.  In addition, several manufacturers are not expected to pay civil penalties because the credits they earned by exceeding the fuel economy standards in earlier years offset later shortfalls.  Other manufacturers may file carryback plans to demonstrate that they anticipate earning credits in future model years to offset current deficits.


Figure II - C A F E Chart Performance for Passenger Cars


Figure II-2:  C A F E  Performance Chart for Light Trucks


CAFE levels may be impacted because of changes made to a manufacturer's vehicle fleet.  Changes that occur such as an increase or decrease in vehicle weights, manufacturer's use of materials like high- and medium-strength steel, plastic and plastic composites, or aluminum to build its vehicles, market-mix shifts due to changes in consumer demand, and the use of advanced technology may potentially impact CAFE levels.

B.      Characteristics of the MY 2002 Passenger Car Fleet

The characteristics of the MY 2002 passenger car fleet reflect a continuing trend toward satisfying consumer demand for heavier cars.  (See Table II-3.)  Compared with MY 2001, the average curb weight for MY 2002 decreased by 16 pounds for the domestic fleet and increased by 47 pounds for the import fleet.  The average curb weight for the total fleet of passenger cars increased from 3,148 pounds in MY 2001 to 3,159 pounds in MY 2002, primarily because of the average curb weight increase for the import fleet.  Average engine displacement decreased from 179 to 175 cubic inches for domestic passenger cars and increased from 148 to 152 cubic inches for import passenger cars from MY 2001 to MY 2002.  Overall, the average engine displacement increased from 165 to 166 cubic inches.  From MY 2001 to MY 2002, horsepower/100 pounds, a measure of vehicle performance, increased from 5.35 to 5.44 for domestic passenger cars and from 5.24 to 5.36 for import passenger cars.  The total fleet average for passenger cars increased from 5.30 horsepower/100 pounds in MY 2001 to 5.41 in MY 2002.  

The 0.3 mpg CAFE improvement for the MY 2002 domestic passenger car fleet may be attributed in part to increased use of automatic transmissions with four or more forward speeds.


Table II-3
PASSENGER CAR FLEET CHARACTERISTICS FOR MYs 2001 AND 2002
 

TOTAL FLEET

DOMESTIC
FLEET

IMPORT
FLEET

CHARACTERISTICS

2001

2002

2001

22002

2001

2002

Fleet Average Fuel Economy, mpg

28.8

28.9

28.7

29.0

29.0

28.7

Fleet Average Curb Weight, lbs.

3148

3159

3167

3151

3124

3171

Fleet Average Equivalent Test Weight, lbs.

3445

3454

3461

3443

3426

3479

Fleet Average Engine Displacement, cu. in.

 165

 166

 179

 175

 148

 152

Fleet Average Horsepower/Weight ratio, HP/100 lbs.

5.30

5.41

5.35

5.44

5.24

5.36

% of Fleet

 100

 100

55.2

60.3

44.8

39.7

Segmentation by EPA Size Class, %

Two-Seater

  1.5

 1.6

 0.8

 1.3

 2.4

 2.0

Minicompact

  1.0

 1.4

 0.0

 0.4

 2.1

 3.1

Subcompact*

  8.1

 8.3

 8.0

 8.1

 8.3

  8.6

Compact*

40.0

37.1

36.9

35.4

43.7

39.6

Mid-Size*

32.4

36.2

26.6

30.3

39.6

45.0

Large*

17.0

15.5

27.7

24.6

 3.8

 1.7

Diesel Engines

  0.27

 0.38

0.0

 0.0

 0.6

 1.0

Turbo or Supercharged Engines

  3.9

 4.3

0.0

0.0

 7.93

 7.82

Fuel Injection

 100

 100

100

 100

 100

100

Front-Wheel Drive

84.5

83.8

89.9

91.1

78.0

72.7

Automatic Transmissions

87.4

87.9

92.0

91.5

81.7

82.5

Automatic Transmissions with Lockup Clutches   

99.3

99.6

99.6

100.0

98.9

98.8

Automatic Transmissions with Four or more Forward Speeds

95.5

98.4

94.3

98.4

97.2

98.3

% Electric

 0.0

  0.0

  0.0

 0.0

 0.0

  0.0

*Includes associated station wagons.

The size/class breakdown shows an increased trend primarily toward two-seater, minicompact, subcompact, and mid-size passenger cars with the reduction of compact and large passenger cars for the overall fleet.  The size/class mix in the domestic fleet showed an increase in two-seater, minicompact, subcompact, and mid-size passenger cars and a decrease in compact and large passenger cars.  The size/class mix in the import fleet showed an increase in minicompact, subcompact, and mid-size passenger cars and a decrease in two-seater, compact, and large passenger cars.  The domestic share of the passenger car market increased 5.1 percentage points in MY 2002 to over 60 percent of the market.

The import fleet rose above its MY 2001 level in the share of diesel engines.  Diesel engines were offered on certain Mercedes and Volkswagen models during MY 2002.  The share of diesel engines in the import fleet increased from 0.6 percent in MY 2001 to 1.0 percent in MY 2002.

Passenger car fleet average characteristics have changed significantly since MY 1978 (the first year of fuel economy standards). (See Table II-4.)  After an initial trend in weight loss (from MY 1978 to MY 1982, the average passenger car fleet curb weight decreased from 3,349 to 2,808 pounds), the curb weight stabilized between 2,800 and 3,161 pounds.  However, since MY 1993, the average passenger car fleet curb weight has steadily increased and has reached a level only exceeded by the initial two years of the CAFE program.  The average horsepower to weight ratio (hp/100 lb.) of  the passenger car fleet has increased each year since 1981.  The average horsepower to weight ratio for MY 2002 passenger car was 5.41, compared to the average of 3.43 in MY 1981.  Table II-4 shows that the MY 2002 passenger car fleet has nearly equal interior volume and more than 45 percent better CAFE than the MY 1978 fleet.  (See Figure II-3.) 

Table II-4
New Passenger Car Fleet Average Characteristics Model Years 1978-2002

Model
Year

Fuel Economy
(mpg)

Curb Weight
(lbs.)

Equivalent
Test Weight
(lbs.)

Interior Space
(cu. ft.)

Engine
Size
(cu. in.)

Horsepower/Curb Weight
(hp/100 lb.)

1978

19.9

3349

3627

112

260

3.68

1979

20.3

3180

3481

110

238

3.72

1980

24.3

2867

3162

105

187

3.51

1981

25.9

2883

3154

108

182

3.43

1982

26.6

2808

3098

107

173

3.47

1983

26.4

2908

3204

109

182

3.57

1984

26.9

2878

3170

108

178

3.66

1985

27.6

2867

3177

108

177

3.84

1986

28.2

2821

3127

106

169

3.89

1987

28.5

2805

3100

109

162

3.98

1988

28.8

2831

3100

108

161

4.11

1989

28.4

2879

3181

109

163

4.22

1990

28.0

2906

3192

108

162

4.53

1991

28.4

2934

3229

108

164

4.42

1992

27.9

3007

3307

109

169

4.56

1993

28.4

2980

3328

109

166

4.64

1994

28.3

3012

3318

109

169

4.79

1995

28.6

3047

3335

109

166

4.87

1996

28.5

3049

3352

109

165

4.93

1997

28.7

3068

3362

109

163

4.94

1998

28.8

3075

3372

109

161

5.05

1999

28.3

3116

3418

110

166

5.21

2000

28.5

3126

3433

111

166

5.25

2001

28.8

3148

3445

110

165

5.30

2002

28.9

3159

3454

111

166

5.41


Passenger Car Fleet Averae Characteristics

C.     Characteristics of the MY 2002 Light Truck Fleet

The characteristics of the MY 2002 light truck fleet are shown in Table II-5.  Unlike passenger cars, light truck manufacturers are not required to divide their fleets into domestic and import fleets.  For comparison purposes, Table II-5 subdivides the light truck fleet into two-wheel drive and four-wheel drive classifications.

The MY 2002 average equivalent test weight of the total light truck fleet increased by 97 pounds over that for MY 2001.  The average CAFE of the fleet increased by 0.4 mpg to 21.3 mpg.  Diesel engine usage rose in light trucks to 1.97 percent in MY 2002.  The share of the MY 2002 two-wheel drive fleet decreased by 2.9 percentage points below the MY 2001 level of 57.0 percent; thus the share of the MY 2002 four-wheel drive fleet increased by 2.9 percentage points above the MY 2001 level of 43.0 percent.

Light truck fuel economy levels increased from 18.5 mpg in MY 1980 to 21.7 mpg in MY 1987.  From 1988 until 2002, fuel economy stabilized at around 21.0 mpg (see Table II-6).  Light truck production increased from 1.9 million units in MY 1980 to 7.9 million units in MY 2002.  Light trucks comprised 49 percent of the total light duty vehicle fleet production in MY 2002, nearly 3 times more than its share in MY 1980.

The size/class breakdown shows an increased trend primarily toward special purpose (both two-wheel drive and four-wheel drive) vehicles, with a reduction of passenger van, cargo van, small pickup, and large pickup vehicles for the overall fleet.  The size/class mix in the two-wheel drive showed an increase in special purpose vehicles and a decrease in passenger van, cargo van, and small pickup, and large pickup vehicles.  The size/class mix in the four-wheel drive showed an increase in special purpose vehicles and a decrease in large pickup vehicles, while passenger van and cargo van vehicles remained stable.

                                                                  

Table II-5 LIGHT TRUCK FLEET CHARACTERISTICS FOR MYs 2001 AND 2002
 

TOTAL FLEET

Two-wheel
Drive

Four-whee
D rive

CHARACTERISTICS

2001

2002

2001

2002

2001

2002

Fleet Average Fuel Economy, mpg

20.9

21.3

22.1

22.6

19.3

20.0

Fleet Average Equivalent Test Weight, lbs.

4538

4635

4387

4483

4737

4815

Fleet Average Engine Displacement, cu. in.

242

242

 232

232

 255

 254

Fleet Average Horsepower/ Weight ratio, HP/100 lbs.

4.40

4.44

4.43

4.47

4.36

4.39

% of Fleet
100
100
57.0
54.1
43.0
45.9

% of Fleet from Foreign-based Manufacturers

 22.9

19.8

18.4

16.9

23.9

19.4

Segmentation by Type, %

Passenger Van

15.1

13.6

25.8

24.4

0.9

 0.9

Cargo Van

  1.8

  1.6

 3.1

2.8

0.1

 0.1

Small Pickup

 2.2

  1.5

 3.8

 2.8

 0.0

 0.0

Large Pickup

Two-Wheel Drive

19.6
17.2
34.5
31.9
 0.0
 0.0

Four-Wheel Drive

13.8

12.5

  0.0

0.0

32.0

27.2

Special Purpose

Two-Wheel Drive

18.7
20.6
32.8
38.1
0.0
0.0
Four-Wheel Drive

28.8

33.0

0.0

0.0

67.0

71.8

Diesel Engines
0.06
1.97
0.0
0.0
0.13
4.3

Turbo/Supercharged Engines

0.33

0.48

0.0

0.1

0.76

0.93

Fuel Injection

100

100

100

100

100

100

Automatic Transmissions

93.5

94.6

92.8

94.2

94.5

95.0

Automatic Transmissions with Lockup Clutches
99.7
99.7
99.4
99.5
100
100

Automatic Transmissions with Four or More Forward Speeds

99.0

99.4

99.0

99.5

99.0

99.1

% Electric        

0.00

 0.00

 0.00

 0.01

 0.00

 0.00



D.         Passenger Car and Light Truck Fleet Economy Averages

Passenger car CAFE increased substantially between 1978 and 1988, from 19.9 mpg to 28.8 mpg, but has remained relatively constant since (see Figure II-4 and Table II-6).  Light truck CAFE increased from 18.5 mpg in 1980 to a high of 21.7 mpg in 1987.  Since 1987, the light truck average has never been greater than 21.3 mpg.

Figure II-4 illustrates an increase in the light duty fleet (combined passenger cars and light trucks) average CAFE through MY 1987, followed by a gradual decline. (Also, see Table II-6.)  The shift to light trucks for general transportation has had a significant effect on fuel consumption, and may continue to do so in the future if sales of light trucks remain relatively constant or increase.  In fact, due largely to the increasing proportion of light trucks in the fleet, the overall light vehicle fleet CAFE average was 24.6 mpg in MY 2002.  The all-time high CAFE level for the overall light vehicle fleet was 26.2 mpg in MY 1987.


Figure II-4: C A F E  Performance Chart for Total Fleet

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          

Table II-6
DOMESTIC AND IMPORT PASSENGER CAR AND LIGHT TRUCK FUEL ECONOMY AVERAGES FOR
MODEL YEARS 1978-2002 (in MPG)

Model Year

Domestic

Import

All Cars

All Light Trucks

 Total Fleet

Light Truck Share of Fleet (%)

Car

Light  Truck

Combined

Car

Light  Truck*

 Combined

 

1978

18.7

...

...

27.3

...

...

19.9

...

...

...

1979

19.3

17.7

19.1

26.1

20.8

25.5

20.3

18.2

20.1

9.8

1980

22.6

16.8

21.4

29.6

24.3

28.6

24.3

18.5

23.1

16.7

1981

24.2

18.3

22.9

31.5

27.4

30.7

25.9

20.1

24.6

17.6

1982

25.0

19.2

23.5

31.1

27.0

30.4

26.6

20.5

25.1

20.1

1983

24.4

19.6

23.0

32.4

27.1

31.5

26.4

20.7

24.8

22.5

1984

25.5

19.3

23.6

32.0

26.7

30.6

26.9

20.6

25.0

24.4

1985

26.3

19.6

24.0

31.5

26.5

30.3

27.6

20.7

25.4

25.9

1986

26.9

20.0

24.4

31.6

25.9

29.8

28.2

21.5

25.9

28.6

1987

27.0

20.5

24.6

31.2

25.2

29.6

28.5

21.7

26.2

28.1

1988

27.4

20.6

24.5

31.5

24.6

30.0

28.8

21.3

26.0

30.1

1989

27.2

20.4

24.2

30.8

23.5

29.2

28.4

21.0

25.6

30.8

1990

26.9

20.3

23.9

29.9

23.0

28.5

28.0

20.8

25.4

30.1

1991

27.3

20.9

24.4

30.1

23.0

28.4

28.4

21.3

25.6

32.2

1992

27.0

20.5

23.8

29.2

22.7

27.9

27.9

20.8

25.1

32.9

1993

27.8

20.7

24.2

29.6

22.8

28.1

28.4

21.0

25.2

37.4

1994

27.5

20.5

23.5

29.7

22.0

27.8

28.3

20.8

24.7

40.2

1995

27.7

20.3

23.8

30.3

21.5

27.9

28.6

20.5

24.9

37.4

1996

28.1

20.5

24.1

29.6

22.2

27.7

28.5

20.8

24.9

39.7

1997

27.8

20.2

23.3

30.1

22.1

27.5

28.7

20.6

24.6

42.1

1998

28.6

20.5

23.3

29.2

22.9

27.6

28.8

21.1

24.7

44.5

1999

28.0

...

...

29.0

...

...

28.3

20.9

24.5

44.0

2000

28.7

...

...

28.3

...

...

28.5

21.3

24.8

44.2

2001

28.7

...

...

29.0

...

...

28.8

20.9

24.6

45.4

2002

29.0

...

...

28.7

...

...

28.9

21.3

24.6

48.9

*Light trucks from foreign-based manufacturers.  NOTE:  Beginning with MY 1999, the agency ceased categorizing the total light truck fleet by either domestic or import fleets.


E.      Domestic and Import Fleet Fuel Economy Averages

Domestic and import passenger car fleet average CAFE values have improved since MY 1978, although the increase is far more dramatic for the domestic fleet.       In MY 2002, the domestic passenger car fleet average CAFE improved to an all-time high of 29.0 mpg.  The import passenger car fleet average CAFE was 28.7 mpg.  Compared with MY 1978, this reflects an increase of 10.3 mpg for domestic cars and 1.4 mpg for import cars. 

The disparity between the average CAFEs of the import and domestic manufacturers has declined in recent years as domestic manufacturers have maintained relatively stable CAFE values and vehicle offerings, while the import manufacturers have introduced new vehicle offerings that feature larger passenger cars and light trucks to the market.

 

 


SECTION III: 2002 ACTIVITIES

 

A.     Light Truck CAFE Standards

On April 4, 2002, NHTSA published a final rule establishing a standard of 20.7 mpg for light trucks for MY 2004 (67 FR 16052).  Under Federal law, NHTSA had to issue a final rule setting a MY 2004 light truck CAFE standard by April 1, 2002 (by statute, CAFE standards must be issued at least 18 months before the beginning of the affected MY).  Because the Congressional freeze was not lifted until mid-December 2001, the agency lacked sufficient time to complete its research and lay the factual and analytical foundation needed to change the standard from the MY 2003 level of 20.7 mpg.

In December 2002, NHTSA proposed new CAFE standards for MYs 2005 through 2007 light trucks.  The proposed standards were 21.0 mpg for MY 2005, 21.6 mpg for MY 2006, and 22.2 mpg for MY 2007.

B.     Low Volume Petitions

49 U.S.C. 32902(d) provides that a low volume manufacturer of passenger cars may be exempted from the generally applicable passenger car fuel economy standards, if these standards are more stringent than the maximum feasible average fuel economy for that manufacturer, and if NHTSA establishes an alternative standard for that manufacturer at its maximum feasible level.  A low volume manufacturer is one that manufactured fewer than 10,000 passenger cars worldwide, in the model year for which the exemption is sought (the affected model year) and in the second model year preceding that model year.  In 2002, NHTSA did not act on any low volume petitions.

C.     Enforcement

49 U.S.C. 32912(b) imposes a civil penalty of $5.50 for each tenth of a mpg by which a manufacturer's CAFE level falls short of the standard, multiplied by the total number of passenger automobiles or light trucks produced by the manufacturer in that model year.  Credits earned for exceeding the standard, in any of the three model years immediately before or subsequent to the model years in question, can be used to offset the penalty.

Table III-1 shows CAFE fines paid by manufacturers in calendar year 2002.  In calendar year 2002, manufacturers paid civil penalties totaling $52,976,726 for failing to comply with the CAFE standards of 27.5 mpg for passenger cars and 20.7 mpg for light trucks in MYs 2000d 2001.

 

Table III-1
CAFE FINES COLLECTED DURING CALENDAR YEAR 2002

Model Year

Manufacturer

Amount Fined

Date Paid

2000

Lotus Cars USA, Inc.

$43,758

04/02

Mercedes-Benz of North America, Inc.

18,959,292

09/02

2001

Porsche Cars North America, Inc.

4,997,190

08/02

Volkswagen of America, Inc.1

173,118

08/02

Fiat Motors of North America

817,443

09/02

BMW of North America

27,985,925

10/02

1Volkswagen light truck fleet

D.     Carryback Plans

49 U.S.C. 32903 allows an automobile manufacturer to earn fuel economy credits during any model year in which the manufacturer's fleet exceeds the established CAFE standard.  The amount of credits a manufacturer earns is determined by multiplying the number of tenths of a mile per gallon by which the average fuel economy of the manufacturer's fleet in the model year exceeds the standard by the total number of vehicles in the manufacturer's fleet for the model year.

Already earned CAFE credits are carried forward by the agency (with affected manufacturers given an opportunity to comment on the agency's allocation of credits), and distributed to any of the three succeeding model years in which the manufacturer's fleet falls below the CAFE standard.  For example, credits earned in MY 1999 may be used to offset deficiencies in MYs 2000, 2001, and/or 2002.  A manufacturer also may submit to the agency a carryback plan to demonstrate that it will earn sufficient credits within the following three model years, which can be allocated to offset penalties in the model year involved.

Ford submitted a carryback plan dated April 2, 2002 to the agency for its MY 2001 light truck fleet CAFE compliance, using credits it projects to earn in MYs 2003 and 2004 to offset its MY 2001 shortfall liability.  Ford's carryback plan was approved December 5, 2002.  BMW also submitted a carryback plan dated October 10, 2002 to the agency for its MY 2001 light truck

fleet CAFE compliance, using credits it projects to earn in MY 2004 to offset its MY 2001 shortfall liability.  NHTSA is reviewing this carryback plan and will respond in 2003.

E.         Manufacturing Incentives for Alternative Fuel Vehicles

The Alternative Motor Fuels Act of 1988 (AMFA) provides CAFE incentives for the manufacture of vehicles that use alcohol or natural gas fuels, either exclusively or as an alternate fuel in conjunction with gasoline or diesel fuel.  AMFA instructed that NHTSA either extend the incentive program for dual fueled vehicles for up to four years beyond MY 2004, with a maximum allowable increase in average fuel economy per manufacturer of 0.9 miles per gallon, or issue a Federal Register explaining why the incentive program was not extended.  On March 11, 2002, NHTSA published a notice of proposed rulemaking that solicited comments on the agency's proposal to extend the dual-fuel incentives program by four years, i.e., through the end of the 2008 MY (67 FR 10873).  The agency will issue a final rule in 2003.