PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT

Office of Regulatory Analysis & Evaluation
Plans and Policy

October, 1999

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction I-1


2. Target Population II-1


A. Fatalities II-1
B. Injuries II-14
3. Injury Criteria III-1


A. Summary of NHTSA's ICPL Proposal III-3
B. Injury Risk Curves III-6
C. Injury Criteria and IARVs for Analysis Purposes III-26
4. Test Data and Analysis of Test Data IV-1


A. Static Tests, Out-of-Position IV-2
B. Full-Scale Vehicle Tests (In-Position) IV-16
C. Summary of Pass Rates IV-39
D. Test Procedure Stringency IV-44
5. Technology Options and Analysis V-1

A. Discussion of Technologies V-1
B. Out-of-Position Test Technologies V-2
C. High Speed Test Technologies V-11
D. Analysis of Alternative High Speed Tests V-12
6. Potential Benefits VI-1

A. Target Population VI-7
B. Overview of Method VI-11
C. Benefit Estimates VI-21
D. Benefits Summary VI-64
E. Sensitivity Study #1, Safety Belt Use VI-68
F. Sensitivity Study #2, Redesigned Air Bag VI-74
G. Discussion VI-75
7. Technology Costs, and Leadtime VII-1

A. Technology Cost VII-1
B. Property Damage Costs VII-20
C. Total and Net Costs VII-29
D. Compliance Test Costs VII-33
E. Leadtime VII-40
8. Cost Effectiveness VIII-1


9. Regulatory Flexibility Act and Unfunded Mandates Acts IX-1

10. Cumulative Impacts of Recent Rulemakings X-1

Comparisons of Pre MY 98 to MY 98/99 Air Bags A-1
208 Sled vs. 208 Barrier A-29
Multi-stage Inflator Tests A-33
Test Procedure Repeatability A-35