Technical Report Documentation Page

1. Report No.

DOT HS 810 614

2. Government Accession No.

3. Recipient’s Catalog No.

4. Title and Subtitle

National Evaluation of Graduated Driver Licensing Programs

5. Report Date

June 2006

6. Performing Organization Code


7. Author(s)
Susan P. Baker, M.P.H.; Li-Hui Chen, M.S., Ph.D.; and
Guohua Li, M.D, Dr.P.H.

8. Performing Organization Report No.


9. Performing Organization Name and Address

Johns Hopkins School of Public Health
Center for Injury Research and Policy
624 N. Broadway, Baltimore MD 21205

10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS)

11. Contract or Grant No.


12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
400 7 th St. , SW., Washington DC 20590

13. Type of Report and Period Covered

NHTSA Technical Report

14. Sponsoring Agency Code

15. Supplementary Notes

Paul J. Tremont, Ph.D. was the Contracting Officer's Technical Representative (COTR) for this project.

16. Abstract

Context. Implementation of Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) programs is associated with lower fatal crash rates of young drivers, but the contribution of specific components of GDL programs is not known.

Objective. To determine which types of GDL programs are associated with reductions in fatal crashes involving 16-year-old drivers.

Design, Setting, and Population. A retrospective study of involvement of 16-year-old drivers in fatal crashes in the United States from 1994 through 2004 using data obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) and the US Census Bureau. The association of various GDL programs with fatal crashes involving 16-year-old drivers was examined and compared to results for 20-24 and 25-29-year-old drivers. Analysis was based on the total number of quarters of the year in all States (“State-quarters”) with or without specific GDL programs, excluding the four quarters before and the four quarters after a law was changed.

Main Outcome Measures. Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) for fatal crashes involving 16-year-old drivers in relation to GDL programs.

Results. Overall, State-quarters having GDL programs (combined results, including weaker programs) were associated with an 11% lower [IRR 0.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80, 0.99)] fatal crash involvement rate for 16-year-old drivers, than State-quarters without GDL programs. When State-quarters without any of the seven GDL components are compared to State-quarters with GDL programs, only those programs having five or more components had significantly lower (18%-21%) fatal crash involvement rates for 16-year-old drivers. The finding that GDL is associated with lower fatal crash involvement rates is strengthened by the observation that drivers age 20 to 24 or 25 to 29 years old did not also show lower fatal crash involvement rates during comparable State quarters.

Conclusion. The most comprehensive GDL programs are associated with crash involvement rates about 20 percent lower for 16-year-olds than comparable crash involvement rates without GDL programs Based on existing programs that were sufficiently common for analysis, the greatest benefit appears to be in programs that include age requirements plus 3 or more months of waiting before the intermediate stage, nighttime driving restriction, and either supervised driving of at least 30 hours or a passenger restriction.

17. Key Words

GDL, Teenage driver, Evaluation, Crash

18. Distribution Statement

This report is available from the National Technical Information Service, Springfield , VA 22161

19. Security Classif. (Of this report)

20. Security Classif. (Of this page)

21. No. of Pages

22. Price

Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72)                             Reproduction of completed page authorized